Ranil Wickremesinghe winning – an increasingly unlikely proposition, says Tamil Guardian, London
November 8, 2005Political events in Sri Lanka are meanwhile overtaking the international peace initiative. Inevitably, there are varying opinions as to which of the two candidates will win November’s election. But it is quite clear that in any case, Sinhala ultra-nationalists have become a powerful political force that, as we have argued before, both Sri Lanka’s minorities and the international community will be compelled to confront them on the road to peace. The battle lines can already be discerned. The Co-Chairs have reiterated their commitment to a federal solution to end Sri Lanka’s protracted conflict. But Mahinda Rajapakse’s campaign hinges on his opposition to any ‘division of the country.’ Whereas to the international community and the island’s minorities, federalism is not division, to the Sinhala ultra-nationalists bearing him aloft, it most certainly is. Even if Ranil Wickremesinghe wins – an increasingly unlikely proposition – the Sinhala nationalists will yet undermine the peace process. The ignominious fate of the Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) is likely to befall every advance in the peace process.
The international community has played an unwitting role in the ascendancy of the Sinhala nationalist forces in Sri Lanka. There is no compelling reason for these extremists to heed international sentiment, even when in power. In the recent past, donors have unilaterally and collectively breached the aid conditionality they themselves imposed. And whereas little aid has reached the hundreds of thousands of displaced people in the Northeast, the south continues to benefit substantially, not only from aid flows but indirect benefits such as investment flows. In other words, with their political constituency reaping the substantial benefits of peace already, why should Sinhala leaders compromise on the ethnic question?
This week the hardline monks of the JHU – now reversing the argument the Tigers have been expanding their military during the ceasefire – declared that southern leaders are over-estimating the potency of the LTTE. A new war could be won in short order they argue. The Tamils – and we suggest the international community, too – should brace themselves. It is inevitable that Sri Lanka will attempt a military solution again.
Editorial, Tamil Guardian, Sep 21 2005
http://www.tamilguardian.com/beta/news_details.asp?newsid=234
