Lanka Citizen

Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha

Over the last couple of months the upper classes have had a field day in criticizing Mahinda for what they characterize as opportunism with regard to the Presidential election. While I have to declare an interest in that the Liberal Party will now officially support him, I still think my worries about the manner in which he is attacked are based on a more objective approach than his detractors can muster.

For instance one of the main charges against him is that he tries to be all things to all men to secure their support, and that he can do this the more readily because he has no fundamental principles himself. This is I think absurd, for there is certainly consistency in the doctrine of pluralism he has enunciated, whilst refusing to go along with LTTE authoritarianism in the North-east. I suspect his confidence in his own roots allows him to make inclusive pronouncements, that make it clear he is no chauvinist, even from the Dalada Malgawa, such as his commitment to protect all religions, whereas poor Ranil has to run twice as hard as it were to maintain the same position. Thus the ridiculous assertion in the latest UNP manifesto, that ‘We will build the world’s largest dagaba in Sri Lanka’. Buddhism is granted a couple more platitudinous pronouncements, while the Muslims only get war and tsunami damaged places of worship being repaired, and Hindus repair of places of worship ‘damaged by the war and fallen out of maintenance over the years’. Christians will get an environment ‘to practice their religion freely’.

I say poor Ranil advisedly, because recently I have had students claiming that one needs to be a Sinhala Buddhist to stand for President, and that Ranil is a Catholic. I have pointed out that both these statements are untrue, and that Ranil was brought up from the start as a Buddhist, unlike other politicians such as Jayewardene and Mr Bandaranaike who were both converts. But, perceptions being what they are, I can understand why Ranil has to engage in competitions about size to prove his commitment.

That item in the manifesto is funny enough, but funnier I think are his other populist pronouncements, and the interpretation of them by the English language press that is so anxious to see him elected. One of his more myopic supporters, who had been inveighing for years against old-fashioned economic practices such as subsidies and price controls, refused to comment when I asked her what she thought about reduced prices for ‘essential food items’ – and then hastily added that this was just for one year. Given that this is twinned with a policy of not importing rice, but that rice is not mentioned as one of the essential items the price of which will be controlled, one wonders whether the population will be required to eat cake.

An article in the ‘Sunday Island’, while fulsomely praising the manifesto, claims that Ranil plans to re-introduce the systems that enabled the last UNF government to bring down inflation. However, since this will take time, he will ‘as an interim measure…set price ceilings for several key food items.’ The ‘Sunday Leader’ meanwhile takes the bull by the horns in claiming that the manifesto is ‘unashamedly populist’. Then however it argues that, since ‘Wickremesinghe cannot hope to impose price controls’, he will fund his populism ‘from increased government revenues’. Since it believes this will not be through taxation, it assumes it will be through ‘reducing waste’ as well as dipping into ‘the US $4 billion pledged by way of international reconstruction aid to keep public dissent in check until the economy can take off’.

Now, much as one admires the ‘Leader’s’ sleight of hand, I cannot imagine its editor actually believing that we will immediately get the $ 4 billion to subsidise dhal and milk powder. That he then goes on to his usual refrain about ‘a swift end to the tension with the LTTE’ underlines the thrust of his argument, made this time without snide asides about the President, that Mahinda along with the JVP will lead to ‘renewed war’. So the editorial, despite its initial questioning of the inconsistency of the current UNP approach, devotes itself towards the end to attacking Mahinda. The editor’s old bete noire the President is now presented in a very positive light, with Ranil being urged to make it ‘abundantly clear that his solution to the ethnic problem is the same as Kumaratunga’s’.

But politics does make strange bedfellows, though I doubt the President rushing to embrace the ‘Leader’. A particularly significant volte-face on Ranil’s part occurred a couple of weeks back when he embraced Sirisena Cooray whom he had shunned for so long. The elite, which had been so scathing about Premadasa and Cooray, which sees Ranil as needing to affirm his ties with JR, has obviously had to retract. Ranil it seems has finally realized that there is a significant constituency which still appreciates the achievements for the masses as well as the country at large of the Premadasa years.

That he is willing to take the risk makes clear, even more than his populist manifesto, that he has realized how misleading are the urban perceptions about his inevitable victory. Whatever the horoscopes might say, the people seem likely to disagree. And if they do, and Ranil loses, the return of Cooray means that Ranil can no longer assume he will continue to lead his party. He was phenomenally lucky that Gamini Athukorale, who had nearly succeeded in removing him in 2001 and replacing him with a more appealing figure, died so suddenly. Had Athukorale lived, there is no doubt that Karu Jayasuriya would by now be leading the UNP, and that its support would have been more extensive. However, without Athukorale, Karu would still continue modestly as Deputy Leader of the UNP however badly Ranil performed at the election. Cooray’s return changes that. If Ranil loses now, assuming he does not leave of his own volition, the leadership the party needs to ensure that he is replaced will be available.

Of course anything could happen in the next couple of months. Most frighteningly, the LTTE is not likely to remain passive. But whereas the country could well be riven, in several ways, if Ranil wins, now it seems likely that if Mahinda wins the main parties could well move towards a national consensus. That is what we need if the ethnic problem is to be resolved and the country is to progress on the basis of equity as well as development.

courtesy Lanka Academic